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No. 1 seed race leads March Madness bracketology predicting NCAA Tournament field

- - No. 1 seed race leads March Madness bracketology predicting NCAA Tournament field

Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus and Paul Myerberg, USA TODAYJanuary 15, 2026 at 3:05 AM

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As college basketball fans well know, the only bracket that matters is the official one, and we’re still over two months away from seeing that one on Selection Sunday. That doesn’t stop the analysts and pundits from speculating, of course, so in that spirit we add our collective voice to the chorus with our initial attempt to project the NCAA men’s tournament field.

Arizona currently holds the mantle as the top overall seed. Joining the Wildcats as projected No. 1 regional seeds are a couple of usual suspects, Connecticut and Duke, and a not-so-usual one, Michigan. Iowa State, which just lost Tuesday for the first time all season, and Vanderbilt, which had its first defeat Wednesday, are on the No. 2 seed line along with Purdue, and Gonzaga.

For the moment, the Big Ten leads all conferences with 10 teams in the field, although a couple of them are among the last four in. The SEC is unlikely to match its record 14 tournament berths from a year ago but does have a healthy nine in the field. As usual the power conferences occupy a vast majority of the at-large slots, but Saint Louis of the Atlantic 10 and long-time WCC contender Saint Mary’s have strong cases for inclusion.

Bracketology: NCAA Tournament field projection

Last four in

Indiana, New Mexico, Ohio State, TCU.

First four out

UCLA, Baylor, Creighton, Texas.

NCAA Tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: Big Ten (10), SEC (9), Big 12 (8), ACC (8) Big East (4), Mountain West (2), West Coast (2).

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracketology predicting the NCAA tournament field

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